Ten years ago, I assembled some facts and figures about changes that were occurring in the HVAC industry. The data was well documented, principally in the industry media and to some extent , industry employment trends. I eventually formulated a “white paper” of sorts ,and made numerous predictions. I had the pleasure of presenting these findings at the Hong Kong Chapter of ASHRAE, at its 2000 Regional Meeting, and several other appearances as a Distinguished ASHRAE Lecturer. I wrote articles on the subject “Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going” that were picked up by the industry press and published.

All of my predictions have come true. While this website does not have the space to share them all with you, allow me to mention a few.

1,) Design Build has become the building delivery method of choice. It’s a favorite of public projects---and we have more public projects going on because of the bad economy.

2.) Consulting Engineering firms are larger than ever and doing more and more. Again, the economy (which wasn’t in great shape ten years ago) as well as economy of scale, forced takeovers and mergers. Additionally, clients want to work with larger entities, with lots of money, who are easy to sue if something goes wrong. They favor large everything.

3.) They who control oil, control energy. That’s by and large always been true, but now it’s reality. The in-fighting at the world level over the environment has highlighted some interesting contenders for power. Will green-power win? We didn’t even consider that possibility in 2000.

4.) The HVAC industry is controlled by seven or less large brand firms. Very true, but some new competitors, from overseas, and rising to the surface and may become one of the seven. So many mergers and takeovers are going on that one needs a scorecard to keep up.

5.) Quality of workmanship, maintenance ,engineering and ethical behavior is headed downhill across the board. Witness more and more government intervention and newspaper headlines about white collar wrongdoers, in public and private work. There’s a looseness in our industry that now defies the standards of quality we’ve been used to: HVAC systems that simply perform poorly due to a myriad of bad engineering, drywall that destroys piping and conduit.; black mold that is the result of sloppy construction and water penetrations. Building codes are often ignored by professionals as well as enforcers.

We’re caught in a cycle that will end, eventually, and what will be successful will be new ways to live, new ways to heat and cool our homes, new materials that will no longer expose us to harmful chemicals in consumer goods and in the environment, and just perhaps, less concentration on making a buck at all costs.

We live in exciting times.

Eileen Duignan-Woods,P.E.